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IN SOME corners of thecommercial-property market a slight whiff of self-congratulation isin the air. Doom-laden warnings issued in 2008 and early 2009 thatcommercial real estate would be the next shoe to drop have notcome to pass. Opportunistic investors hoping to cash in on the sale ofdistressed assets have been largely disappointed. Governments haveintervened less than they have in housing . Commercial real estate wasnot at the heart of the crisis, says a big fund manager in Germany.
在商业地产市场的某些角落里，空气中漂浮着一丝自得的气息。商业地产将会是下一只掉落的鞋子这条2008年和2009年初发出的警告并没有最终成为现实。那些希望靠出售问题资产赚钱的机会型投资者多半沮丧而归。政府对商业地产的干预比对住宅所做的干预要少。商业地产不是这次危机的中心， 德国一个大型基金的经理人这样说。
Investors interest in the asset class is growing, thanks in large partto the extreme macroeconomic environment. Near-zero interestrates make the yields on offer from property look attractive. The cashflow from tenants ismore stable than that from equities, where values zigzag day by day and dividends cansuddenly be suspended by the management. And unlike many types of bonds, property isseen as a useful hedge against inflation because rental agreements can be renegotiated withtenants to reflect rising prices. Bulls note that Norways $543 billion state pension fund, one ofthe worlds largest sovereign-wealth funds, is starting to allocate money to property. It madeits first real-estate investment in January, spending ￡452m on properties in LondonsRegent Street.
投资者对资产类别的兴趣正在增加，很大一部分原因是极端的宏观经济环境。近于零的利率使得房产提供的收益看起来很具吸引力。来自承租者的现金流比来自股票的更稳定，后者的价值日复一日地曲折前行，而且红利可能突然就被管理方中止。而且和许多类型的债券不同，房地产被看作是对冲通胀的利器，因为可以与承租者重新协商租赁协议，以此来反映上涨的物价。看涨者们注意到，挪威5430亿美元的政府养老金正在开始向房地产分配资金。该基金在一月份进行了第一笔房地产投资，把4.52亿英镑投在伦敦丽晶街上的房产。
Led by Britain, which had seen the steepest fall ofthe big property markets , values arerising again. According to IPD, which providesinformation on property markets, Britishcommercial property delivered a total return of15.2% in 2010, its strongest performance for fouryears. Investing in property has paid offhandsomely for many since late 2009. Global REITsperformed twice as well as global stocks and bondsin the 12 months to the end of September 2010.Take a closer look at this resurgence, however, andthe picture becomes more complicated.
经历了商业房产巨幅下跌的英国正在带领商业房产的价值再次攀升。根据IPD提供的房地产市场信息，英国商业地产市场2010年的总回报率为15.2%，是四年来表现最为强劲的一年。对于很多人来说，自2009年末以来，投资房地产收益颇丰。在截止到2010年九月的12个月里，全球房地产投资信托的表现要好过全球股票和债券的两倍之多。但是如果近距离看这次复苏，情况将变得更为复杂。
In one crucial respect, the bubble in commercial property was less dangerous than in theresidential sector: there was no development boom and hence no oversupply. The enormousamount of liquidity sloshing around the system was directed at acquiring existing propertiesrather than building new ones. This was an excess of capital, not an excess of cranes, saysJonathan Gray, the boss of Blackstones real-estate business.
一个关键点是，商业房产的泡沫不如住宅板块的泡沫危险：没有开发热，因此也就没有过度供给。该系统周围庞大充盈的流动资金被用于购买已有的房产，而不是用于新建。这是资金的过剩，不是起重机的过剩，黑石集团房地产业务总裁乔纳森格雷说。
That flood of money drove up debt burdens and property values and reduced yields . Madness became routine: the 110% loan-to-value financing for a hotel in Germany, offered to a borrower with no knowledge of eitherhotels or Germany; the fact that yields on Grafton Street in central Dublin, hardly a retailparadise, came close to those in some of the worlds most prestigious shopping streets; thewillingness of staid fund managers to base their investment case on capital gains rather thanrental growth.
这些流动资金增加了债务负担和房产价值，减小了投资收益。疯狂成为常态：在德国，贷款投资一家酒店的贷款价值比达110%，而借款方既不懂酒店，也不懂德国;都柏林市中心的格拉芙顿街很难说得上是一个购物天堂，但是那里的投资收益接近世界上最知名的购物街;古板的基金经理更愿意让他们的投资案例凭借资本收益获得成功，而不是靠租金的增长。
If the market had been left to run for a little longer, it might have become crazier still. Justbefore the crisis broke, there had been talk of securities made up exclusively of riskierdevelopment loans. But in contrast to the overbuilding of the early 1990s, when rapid rentalgrowth persuaded developers to dig lots of holes in the ground, this time lenders and investorswere disciplined enough to want income-producing properties; they were just not disciplinedenough to price the risks correctly.
如果这个市场当时再持续一段时间，可能还会变得更疯狂。就在危机爆发之前，曾讨论过完全由高风险的开发贷款所构成的债券。但是和1990年代的过度开发相反，这次贷款者和投资者头脑还是足够清醒，他们想要的是投资型的房产;他们只是在正确计算风险上头脑不够清醒。
IN SOME corners of thecommercial-property market a slight whiff of self-congratulation isin the air. Doom-laden warnings issued in 2008 and early 2009 thatcommercial real estate would be the next shoe to drop have notcome to pass. Opportunistic investors hoping to cash in on the sale ofdistressed assets have been largely disappointed. Governments haveintervened less than they have in housing . Commercial real estate wasnot at the heart of the crisis, says a big fund manager in Germany.
在商业地产市场的某些角落里，空气中漂浮着一丝自得的气息。商业地产将会是下一只掉落的鞋子这条2008年和2009年初发出的警告并没有最终成为现实。那些希望靠出售问题资产赚钱的机会型投资者多半沮丧而归。政府对商业地产的干预比对住宅所做的干预要少。商业地产不是这次危机的中心， 德国一个大型基金的经理人这样说。
Investors interest in the asset class is growing, thanks in large partto the extreme macroeconomic environment. Near-zero interestrates make the yields on offer from property look attractive. The cashflow from tenants ismore stable than that from equities, where values zigzag day by day and dividends cansuddenly be suspended by the management. And unlike many types of bonds, property isseen as a useful hedge against inflation because rental agreements can be renegotiated withtenants to reflect rising prices. Bulls note that Norways $543 billion state pension fund, one ofthe worlds largest sovereign-wealth funds, is starting to allocate money to property. It madeits first real-estate investment in January, spending ￡452m on properties in LondonsRegent Street.
投资者对资产类别的兴趣正在增加，很大一部分原因是极端的宏观经济环境。近于零的利率使得房产提供的收益看起来很具吸引力。来自承租者的现金流比来自股票的更稳定，后者的价值日复一日地曲折前行，而且红利可能突然就被管理方中止。而且和许多类型的债券不同，房地产被看作是对冲通胀的利器，因为可以与承租者重新协商租赁协议，以此来反映上涨的物价。看涨者们注意到，挪威5430亿美元的政府养老金正在开始向房地产分配资金。该基金在一月份进行了第一笔房地产投资，把4.52亿英镑投在伦敦丽晶街上的房产。
Led by Britain, which had seen the steepest fall ofthe big property markets , values arerising again. According to IPD, which providesinformation on property markets, Britishcommercial property delivered a total return of15.2% in 2010, its strongest performance for fouryears. Investing in property has paid offhandsomely for many since late 2009. Global REITsperformed twice as well as global stocks and bondsin the 12 months to the end of September 2010.Take a closer look at this resurgence, however, andthe picture becomes more complicated.
经历了商业房产巨幅下跌的英国正在带领商业房产的价值再次攀升。根据IPD提供的房地产市场信息，英国商业地产市场2010年的总回报率为15.2%，是四年来表现最为强劲的一年。对于很多人来说，自2009年末以来，投资房地产收益颇丰。在截止到2010年九月的12个月里，全球房地产投资信托的表现要好过全球股票和债券的两倍之多。但是如果近距离看这次复苏，情况将变得更为复杂。
In one crucial respect, the bubble in commercial property was less dangerous than in theresidential sector: there was no development boom and hence no oversupply. The enormousamount of liquidity sloshing around the system was directed at acquiring existing propertiesrather than building new ones. This was an excess of capital, not an excess of cranes, saysJonathan Gray, the boss of Blackstones real-estate business.
一个关键点是，商业房产的泡沫不如住宅板块的泡沫危险：没有开发热，因此也就没有过度供给。该系统周围庞大充盈的流动资金被用于购买已有的房产，而不是用于新建。这是资金的过剩，不是起重机的过剩，黑石集团房地产业务总裁乔纳森格雷说。
That flood of money drove up debt burdens and property values and reduced yields . Madness became routine: the 110% loan-to-value financing for a hotel in Germany, offered to a borrower with no knowledge of eitherhotels or Germany; the fact that yields on Grafton Street in central Dublin, hardly a retailparadise, came close to those in some of the worlds most prestigious shopping streets; thewillingness of staid fund managers to base their investment case on capital gains rather thanrental growth.
这些流动资金增加了债务负担和房产价值，减小了投资收益。疯狂成为常态：在德国，贷款投资一家酒店的贷款价值比达110%，而借款方既不懂酒店，也不懂德国;都柏林市中心的格拉芙顿街很难说得上是一个购物天堂，但是那里的投资收益接近世界上最知名的购物街;古板的基金经理更愿意让他们的投资案例凭借资本收益获得成功，而不是靠租金的增长。
If the market had been left to run for a little longer, it might have become crazier still. Justbefore the crisis broke, there had been talk of securities made up exclusively of riskierdevelopment loans. But in contrast to the overbuilding of the early 1990s, when rapid rentalgrowth persuaded developers to dig lots of holes in the ground, this time lenders and investorswere disciplined enough to want income-producing properties; they were just not disciplinedenough to price the risks correctly.
如果这个市场当时再持续一段时间，可能还会变得更疯狂。就在危机爆发之前，曾讨论过完全由高风险的开发贷款所构成的债券。但是和1990年代的过度开发相反，这次贷款者和投资者头脑还是足够清醒，他们想要的是投资型的房产;他们只是在正确计算风险上头脑不够清醒。
