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HPs grand vision
惠普的远见
WHEN the board of HP, the worlds largestcomputer-maker, unveiled plans to restructure, itexpected the companys shares to suffer; but not to crash by 20%. HPs bosses thoughtinvestors would love their plan to spin off the firms low-margin personal-computer business, but be wary of their plan to buy Autonomy, a British software-maker, for ahandsome $10.3 billion. In fact, they hated both ideas. On August 19th, the day after theannouncement, they wiped $12 billion off HPs market value.
惠普这个世界上最大的电脑制造商，在其董事会公布重组计划时，就曾预料其股价将会下跌，但没想到会跌20%。惠普老板本以为，他们准备放弃营利较低的个人电脑业务的计划，会得到投资者的支持;但对于以天价收购英国软件公司Autonomy的计划，投资者会表示出担忧。事实上，投资者对这两项计划都不买账。8月19日，就在他们发出声明的第二天，惠普的市值便狂跌了112亿美元。
One problem was that the announcement left unclear what HP wanted to do with its PC unitand why exactly it intends to pay so much for Autonomy. Another factor was that many of thefirms shareholders are short-termists, who were scared away by lowered revenue and profitforecasts. But the big problem is that Lo Apotheker, HPs newish boss, is taking a hugegamble. He is trying to follow the example of IBM, by reducing HPs dependence on hardwareand pushing up into software and services.
一个问题是，在声明中，惠普对于如何处理其个人电脑业务问题，态度不明朗;对于计划高价收购Autonomy的理由，也没能说得清楚。另一个因素是，很多股东看重的是短期利益，惠普的营业额和利润数预测数双双减少，吓跑了不少投资者。但最大的问题是，惠普上任不久的总裁里奥?阿普赛克所冒的风险实在有点大，他试图效仿IBM，降低惠普对计算机硬件的依赖，转而主攻计算机软件和服务。
To grasp what HP has in mind, one has to understand the two main currents in the ITindustry. First, nearly any new technology quickly becomes a commodity that is easily copiedand hence not very profitable. This is why IT firms are always trying to move up the stackinto software and services, where margins are higher. Second, the biggest IT firms typicallycontrol what is known as a platform: a digital foundation on which others build theirproducts, such as Microsofts Windows. This allows them to capture a disproportionate shareof the industrys profits.
要想了解惠普的意图，必须先要弄清IT行业的两个主要趋势。第一，几乎所有快速被商品化的新技术都很容易被对手模仿，因此利润不多。这也是IT公司总是想着要上移堆栈，进入营利较高的计算机软件和服务领域的原因。第二，所谓的计算机平台往往由最大的IT公司独自控制，平台是其他公司产品的电子基础，微软视窗就是一个例子。这些大公司因此能够获得行业利润的较大份额。
HP seems to have ignored both currents, at least inthe past decade. Carly Fiorina, its boss from 1999to 2005, merged with Compaq, another computer-maker, in a deal worth $25 billion. Mark Hurd, hersuccessor, cut costs but was ousted in 2010 after adust-up over sex and expenses before he could fixthe firms strategy.
惠普对两种趋势均重视不够，至少过去10年是这样。卡莉?菲奥利那在1999-2005年间担任惠普总裁，她曾以250亿美元的价格合并了另一家电脑制造商康柏。她的继任者马克?赫德对成本进行了削减，但他在2010年因性丑闻和虚报费用等事被免职，也未能对公司战略进行及时调整。
That job now falls to Mr Apotheker. The firms PC business is the worlds biggest, but is not asprofitable as HPs other units. What is more, most buyers of HPs machines are consumers,whose demands shift faster and more whimsically than those of corporate customers. So HPintends to turn its PC business into a separate unit and then spin it off.
这项重任现在落在了阿普赛克先生的肩上。惠普公司的个人电脑销售业务全球第一，但营利却不如其他业务高。另外，大多数惠普产品的购买者是个人消费者，与公司客户相比，他们对产品的需求变化多端，难以把握。因此，惠普希望把他们的个人电脑业务先独立出来，然后再从惠普公司逐步分离出去。
Buying Autonomy also helps HP to move onto higher-margin terrain: the British firmsoperating margins exceed 40%. But the main reason HP paid a 64% premium for its sharesseems to be that it believes that Autonomys technology could be turned into a platform tohelp companies make sense of their ever-growing pile of data. This includes not onlystructured data , but also the unstructured kind , which now makes up more than 80% of the information that flows through a typicalcompany.
购买 Autonomy也可以帮助惠普跨入营利高地，这家英国公司的经营利润率超过40%。但惠普愿以高出市价64%的价格购买其股份，似乎是因为，它们相信 Autonomy的技术能够成为一个平台，以帮助各企业处理他们日益膨胀的数据库。这不仅包括结构化的数据，也包括非结构化的数据，现在这些数据已占到公司信息流总量的80%还要多。
Such a platform would allow firms to do some niftythings. A retailer, for instance, might decide howmuch beer to stock based not just on previoussales records, but also on weather forecasts, partychatter on social media and schedules for sportsmatches.
这样一个平台能让公司更加出色地完成想做的事，比如一个零售商，在决定啤酒的库存量时，可能不仅要参照它的前期记录，也要考虑未来的天气情况、社会传媒的聚会谈话以及体育比赛的日程安排。
All this sounds sensible. But establishing a newplatform and ultimately becoming a firm that looks much like IBM is a tall order. Many otherfirms are also jostling to become the main interpreter of corporate data. To reach its goal ofhaving software generate 8-9% of its revenues by 2023, up from less than 3% today, HP willprobably have to make further acquisitions. And its services business is mainly about keeping ITsystems running, not about helping firms reinvent themselves .
这些说起来简单，但要建立一个新的平台并最终成为一家类似IBM的公司并不容易。许多IT公司在企业数据处理方面展开了竞争。为了将其软件收入由现在的 3%提高到2023年的8-9%，惠普也许还要收购更多的公司。另外，惠普的服务业务主要是保持IT系统的运行，而不是帮助公司完成自我再造。
Given the difficulties, it is not surprising that many shareholders have bolted. But HP and itsnew boss should not be faulted for trying. They have little alternative, if they wish to avoidbecoming a collection of commodity businesses. Technology is a brutal business, says MrApotheker. If you dont innovate and reinvent yourself, you will become obsolete.
困难如此之多，许多投资者溜之大吉也就不足为怪。但惠普及其新总裁这样努力并没有过错。要想不再成为一个计算机商品大卖场，他们别无选择。阿普赛克先生表示：技术行业竞争非常残酷，如果你不创新，不能完成自我再造，就只能被淘汰。
HPs grand vision
惠普的远见
WHEN the board of HP, the worlds largestcomputer-maker, unveiled plans to restructure, itexpected the companys shares to suffer; but not to crash by 20%. HPs bosses thoughtinvestors would love their plan to spin off the firms low-margin personal-computer business, but be wary of their plan to buy Autonomy, a British software-maker, for ahandsome $10.3 billion. In fact, they hated both ideas. On August 19th, the day after theannouncement, they wiped $12 billion off HPs market value.
惠普这个世界上最大的电脑制造商，在其董事会公布重组计划时，就曾预料其股价将会下跌，但没想到会跌20%。惠普老板本以为，他们准备放弃营利较低的个人电脑业务的计划，会得到投资者的支持;但对于以天价收购英国软件公司Autonomy的计划，投资者会表示出担忧。事实上，投资者对这两项计划都不买账。8月19日，就在他们发出声明的第二天，惠普的市值便狂跌了112亿美元。
One problem was that the announcement left unclear what HP wanted to do with its PC unitand why exactly it intends to pay so much for Autonomy. Another factor was that many of thefirms shareholders are short-termists, who were scared away by lowered revenue and profitforecasts. But the big problem is that Lo Apotheker, HPs newish boss, is taking a hugegamble. He is trying to follow the example of IBM, by reducing HPs dependence on hardwareand pushing up into software and services.
一个问题是，在声明中，惠普对于如何处理其个人电脑业务问题，态度不明朗;对于计划高价收购Autonomy的理由，也没能说得清楚。另一个因素是，很多股东看重的是短期利益，惠普的营业额和利润数预测数双双减少，吓跑了不少投资者。但最大的问题是，惠普上任不久的总裁里奥?阿普赛克所冒的风险实在有点大，他试图效仿IBM，降低惠普对计算机硬件的依赖，转而主攻计算机软件和服务。
To grasp what HP has in mind, one has to understand the two main currents in the ITindustry. First, nearly any new technology quickly becomes a commodity that is easily copiedand hence not very profitable. This is why IT firms are always trying to move up the stackinto software and services, where margins are higher. Second, the biggest IT firms typicallycontrol what is known as a platform: a digital foundation on which others build theirproducts, such as Microsofts Windows. This allows them to capture a disproportionate shareof the industrys profits.
要想了解惠普的意图，必须先要弄清IT行业的两个主要趋势。第一，几乎所有快速被商品化的新技术都很容易被对手模仿，因此利润不多。这也是IT公司总是想着要上移堆栈，进入营利较高的计算机软件和服务领域的原因。第二，所谓的计算机平台往往由最大的IT公司独自控制，平台是其他公司产品的电子基础，微软视窗就是一个例子。这些大公司因此能够获得行业利润的较大份额。
HP seems to have ignored both currents, at least inthe past decade. Carly Fiorina, its boss from 1999to 2005, merged with Compaq, another computer-maker, in a deal worth $25 billion. Mark Hurd, hersuccessor, cut costs but was ousted in 2010 after adust-up over sex and expenses before he could fixthe firms strategy.
惠普对两种趋势均重视不够，至少过去10年是这样。卡莉?菲奥利那在1999-2005年间担任惠普总裁，她曾以250亿美元的价格合并了另一家电脑制造商康柏。她的继任者马克?赫德对成本进行了削减，但他在2010年因性丑闻和虚报费用等事被免职，也未能对公司战略进行及时调整。
That job now falls to Mr Apotheker. The firms PC business is the worlds biggest, but is not asprofitable as HPs other units. What is more, most buyers of HPs machines are consumers,whose demands shift faster and more whimsically than those of corporate customers. So HPintends to turn its PC business into a separate unit and then spin it off.
这项重任现在落在了阿普赛克先生的肩上。惠普公司的个人电脑销售业务全球第一，但营利却不如其他业务高。另外，大多数惠普产品的购买者是个人消费者，与公司客户相比，他们对产品的需求变化多端，难以把握。因此，惠普希望把他们的个人电脑业务先独立出来，然后再从惠普公司逐步分离出去。
Buying Autonomy also helps HP to move onto higher-margin terrain: the British firmsoperating margins exceed 40%. But the main reason HP paid a 64% premium for its sharesseems to be that it believes that Autonomys technology could be turned into a platform tohelp companies make sense of their ever-growing pile of data. This includes not onlystructured data , but also the unstructured kind , which now makes up more than 80% of the information that flows through a typicalcompany.
购买 Autonomy也可以帮助惠普跨入营利高地，这家英国公司的经营利润率超过40%。但惠普愿以高出市价64%的价格购买其股份，似乎是因为，它们相信 Autonomy的技术能够成为一个平台，以帮助各企业处理他们日益膨胀的数据库。这不仅包括结构化的数据，也包括非结构化的数据，现在这些数据已占到公司信息流总量的80%还要多。
Such a platform would allow firms to do some niftythings. A retailer, for instance, might decide howmuch beer to stock based not just on previoussales records, but also on weather forecasts, partychatter on social media and schedules for sportsmatches.
这样一个平台能让公司更加出色地完成想做的事，比如一个零售商，在决定啤酒的库存量时，可能不仅要参照它的前期记录，也要考虑未来的天气情况、社会传媒的聚会谈话以及体育比赛的日程安排。
All this sounds sensible. But establishing a newplatform and ultimately becoming a firm that looks much like IBM is a tall order. Many otherfirms are also jostling to become the main interpreter of corporate data. To reach its goal ofhaving software generate 8-9% of its revenues by 2023, up from less than 3% today, HP willprobably have to make further acquisitions. And its services business is mainly about keeping ITsystems running, not about helping firms reinvent themselves .
这些说起来简单，但要建立一个新的平台并最终成为一家类似IBM的公司并不容易。许多IT公司在企业数据处理方面展开了竞争。为了将其软件收入由现在的 3%提高到2023年的8-9%，惠普也许还要收购更多的公司。另外，惠普的服务业务主要是保持IT系统的运行，而不是帮助公司完成自我再造。
Given the difficulties, it is not surprising that many shareholders have bolted. But HP and itsnew boss should not be faulted for trying. They have little alternative, if they wish to avoidbecoming a collection of commodity businesses. Technology is a brutal business, says MrApotheker. If you dont innovate and reinvent yourself, you will become obsolete.
困难如此之多，许多投资者溜之大吉也就不足为怪。但惠普及其新总裁这样努力并没有过错。要想不再成为一个计算机商品大卖场，他们别无选择。阿普赛克先生表示：技术行业竞争非常残酷，如果你不创新，不能完成自我再造，就只能被淘汰。
