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Waiting for the earth to open
待重头收拾旧山河
HOURS after an earthquake struck Americas east coast on August 23rd, office workers werestill milling around the streets of Washington, DC and New York , nervously waiting foraftershocks. A similar watch over the economy is now under way. The earthquake that rippedthrough the American economy from 2007 to 2009 is still generating tremors. The latest maybe the strongest yet. Since late July stock markets in America and round the world havenosedived, fearful that America is falling back into recession and that Europes debt crisis willdrag down its banks.
在美国东海岸8 月23日的地震之后数个小时，上班族们仍在华盛顿和纽约的街道上游荡着，惴惴不安地等待着下次余震。美国经济也正出现类似的情况。跨经2007年到 2009年的美国经济大地震破坏其经济体系，并不断产生余震。或许，最后的才是最强的。自7月下旬美国股市和全球股市都遭受重创，人们担心美国经济衰退，同时也害怕欧洲的债务危机拖垮银行。
Americas economy is certainly weak. It grew at an annualised rate of just 0.4% in the firstquarter and 1.3% in the second. Future revisions may push both numbers into negativeterritory: the economy would have already double-dipped.
美国经济确实已经很衰弱了。第一季度的经济增长只有0.4%，而第二季度则为1.3%。以后的计算修正或许会让这两个数字变为负值：美国经济已经出现二次探底。
Much of that weakness may be traced to the run-up in oil prices that followed the Libyanuprising and to the Japanese earthquake and tsunami, which disrupted supply chains. Asboth shocks receded, economic activity turned up. An index of economic reports compiled bythe Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago suggests that the economy grew in July ,though it may since have flagged again.
经济的虚弱之处大部分应归咎于原油价格的急剧增长，这是因为在利比亚起义和日本地震海啸之后，原油的供应链遭到了破坏。在这两大冲击都有所减弱后，经济活动得到了喘息之机。在芝加哥联邦储备银行编纂的一份经济报告指数显示，美国经济在7月份产生正增长，虽然它后来可能会再次陷入低迷。
Economists have long speculated that weak growthof this sort is like an aircrafts stall speed, belowwhich it risks falling out of the sky. A paper byJeremy Nalewaik of the Federal Reserve has foundthat since 1978, whenever the economy has grownless than 1% in a given quarter, a recession hassoon followed half to two-thirds of the time. .
经济学家们推测，这种类型的弱势增长就好像飞机的失速速度，一旦低于这个临界点，那么就有可能从空中坠落。美联储的Jeremy Nalewaik撰文写道，自1978年以来，无论何时只要某季度的经济增长率低于1%，那么很快地，在其后的一半或者三分之二的时间里就会处于衰退之中。
That is not as helpful as it sounds. Aircraft flying slowly do sometimes crash but, more often,they land. Slow-growing economies that fall into recession are typically pushed, as some shockforces a pre-existing imbalance to tip them over.
这并非像听起来那样有效。飞机飞的过慢时或许会坠毁，但更多的时候它们可以选择着陆。而陷入不景气的缓慢经济却往往处于困境之中，因为某些打击使得已失衡的部分倾覆整个经济体系。
Such imbalances are hard to find now in America. Housing, cars and business inventories, thethree most volatile components of GDP, usually accelerate the contraction that bringsrecession. None looks especially stretched. Quite the opposite: house-construction has neverclimbed off the bottom, and now makes up just 2.4% of GDP, less than half its historicalaverage . Mike Gorman, a builder in northern Virginia, says that his business hascollapsed over the past three years. We went from 40 employees to one part-timer. Werebuilding just a house or two here or there. Its been really, really quiet. Car production hasrebounded, but to a level well below its typical share of GDP. The ratio of business inventoriesto sales, which soared during the recession, is now back to normal.
这样的不安定因素在美国已经很难找到。住房，汽车和商业库存，这国内生产总值的三大最不稳定成分，通常会加速导致衰退的通货紧缩。没有哪家能脱身事外。恰恰相反：住房建设从未脱离底部进入上升，并且现在仅占GDP的2.4%，低于历史平均水平的一半。 Mike Gorman，北弗吉尼亚州的一个建造商，说道他的生意在过去的三年里遭受重挫。我们原来有40名雇员，而现在只有一个兼职人员。我们只是零散地盖了一两栋房子。这真的，真的太萧条了。汽车产量业已回升，但只是处于GDP的通常份额标准之下。商业存货销售比在经济衰退期间飙升，而现在也已经回跌到正常水平。
The shock that pushes the economy over the edge often originates in financial markets.Although stock prices have plummeted, credit is relatively easy to come by. Spreads oncorporate bonds are normal, short-term interest rates are deeply negative when adjusted forinflation, and the Feds latest survey has found banks more anxious to lend, the exactopposite of lending conditions in the run-up to recession, notes Kevin Logan of HSBC.
将经济推向悬崖边缘的冲击通常来源于金融市场。虽然股市一路暴跌，贷款却唾手可得。公司债券的信贷利差维持正常，而短期利率再算上通胀率影响后变为负值，而美联储最近调查表明银行更加急于放贷，和衰退前夕的放贷环境恰恰相反，汇丰银行的Kevin Logan随手记道。
Although the absence of obvious imbalances or financial strains does not eliminate the risk ofrecession in America, it does militate against a long, deep downturn. Indeed, it may be hard formost people to distinguish a shallow recession from lacklustre growth.
尽管缺少明显的经济不平衡和资金紧张的迹象，这也并不能消除美国会爆发经济衰退的风险，但是，这的确会对防止美国进入持久的大幅度的经济下滑产生影响。事实上，对于大多数人们来说，区分平淡无奇的增长和不明显的衰退是很困难的。
Waiting for the earth to open
待重头收拾旧山河
HOURS after an earthquake struck Americas east coast on August 23rd, office workers werestill milling around the streets of Washington, DC and New York , nervously waiting foraftershocks. A similar watch over the economy is now under way. The earthquake that rippedthrough the American economy from 2007 to 2009 is still generating tremors. The latest maybe the strongest yet. Since late July stock markets in America and round the world havenosedived, fearful that America is falling back into recession and that Europes debt crisis willdrag down its banks.
在美国东海岸8 月23日的地震之后数个小时，上班族们仍在华盛顿和纽约的街道上游荡着，惴惴不安地等待着下次余震。美国经济也正出现类似的情况。跨经2007年到 2009年的美国经济大地震破坏其经济体系，并不断产生余震。或许，最后的才是最强的。自7月下旬美国股市和全球股市都遭受重创，人们担心美国经济衰退，同时也害怕欧洲的债务危机拖垮银行。
Americas economy is certainly weak. It grew at an annualised rate of just 0.4% in the firstquarter and 1.3% in the second. Future revisions may push both numbers into negativeterritory: the economy would have already double-dipped.
美国经济确实已经很衰弱了。第一季度的经济增长只有0.4%，而第二季度则为1.3%。以后的计算修正或许会让这两个数字变为负值：美国经济已经出现二次探底。
Much of that weakness may be traced to the run-up in oil prices that followed the Libyanuprising and to the Japanese earthquake and tsunami, which disrupted supply chains. Asboth shocks receded, economic activity turned up. An index of economic reports compiled bythe Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago suggests that the economy grew in July ,though it may since have flagged again.
经济的虚弱之处大部分应归咎于原油价格的急剧增长，这是因为在利比亚起义和日本地震海啸之后，原油的供应链遭到了破坏。在这两大冲击都有所减弱后，经济活动得到了喘息之机。在芝加哥联邦储备银行编纂的一份经济报告指数显示，美国经济在7月份产生正增长，虽然它后来可能会再次陷入低迷。
Economists have long speculated that weak growthof this sort is like an aircrafts stall speed, belowwhich it risks falling out of the sky. A paper byJeremy Nalewaik of the Federal Reserve has foundthat since 1978, whenever the economy has grownless than 1% in a given quarter, a recession hassoon followed half to two-thirds of the time. .
经济学家们推测，这种类型的弱势增长就好像飞机的失速速度，一旦低于这个临界点，那么就有可能从空中坠落。美联储的Jeremy Nalewaik撰文写道，自1978年以来，无论何时只要某季度的经济增长率低于1%，那么很快地，在其后的一半或者三分之二的时间里就会处于衰退之中。
That is not as helpful as it sounds. Aircraft flying slowly do sometimes crash but, more often,they land. Slow-growing economies that fall into recession are typically pushed, as some shockforces a pre-existing imbalance to tip them over.
这并非像听起来那样有效。飞机飞的过慢时或许会坠毁，但更多的时候它们可以选择着陆。而陷入不景气的缓慢经济却往往处于困境之中，因为某些打击使得已失衡的部分倾覆整个经济体系。
Such imbalances are hard to find now in America. Housing, cars and business inventories, thethree most volatile components of GDP, usually accelerate the contraction that bringsrecession. None looks especially stretched. Quite the opposite: house-construction has neverclimbed off the bottom, and now makes up just 2.4% of GDP, less than half its historicalaverage . Mike Gorman, a builder in northern Virginia, says that his business hascollapsed over the past three years. We went from 40 employees to one part-timer. Werebuilding just a house or two here or there. Its been really, really quiet. Car production hasrebounded, but to a level well below its typical share of GDP. The ratio of business inventoriesto sales, which soared during the recession, is now back to normal.
这样的不安定因素在美国已经很难找到。住房，汽车和商业库存，这国内生产总值的三大最不稳定成分，通常会加速导致衰退的通货紧缩。没有哪家能脱身事外。恰恰相反：住房建设从未脱离底部进入上升，并且现在仅占GDP的2.4%，低于历史平均水平的一半。 Mike Gorman，北弗吉尼亚州的一个建造商，说道他的生意在过去的三年里遭受重挫。我们原来有40名雇员，而现在只有一个兼职人员。我们只是零散地盖了一两栋房子。这真的，真的太萧条了。汽车产量业已回升，但只是处于GDP的通常份额标准之下。商业存货销售比在经济衰退期间飙升，而现在也已经回跌到正常水平。
The shock that pushes the economy over the edge often originates in financial markets.Although stock prices have plummeted, credit is relatively easy to come by. Spreads oncorporate bonds are normal, short-term interest rates are deeply negative when adjusted forinflation, and the Feds latest survey has found banks more anxious to lend, the exactopposite of lending conditions in the run-up to recession, notes Kevin Logan of HSBC.
将经济推向悬崖边缘的冲击通常来源于金融市场。虽然股市一路暴跌，贷款却唾手可得。公司债券的信贷利差维持正常，而短期利率再算上通胀率影响后变为负值，而美联储最近调查表明银行更加急于放贷，和衰退前夕的放贷环境恰恰相反，汇丰银行的Kevin Logan随手记道。
Although the absence of obvious imbalances or financial strains does not eliminate the risk ofrecession in America, it does militate against a long, deep downturn. Indeed, it may be hard formost people to distinguish a shallow recession from lacklustre growth.
尽管缺少明显的经济不平衡和资金紧张的迹象，这也并不能消除美国会爆发经济衰退的风险，但是，这的确会对防止美国进入持久的大幅度的经济下滑产生影响。事实上，对于大多数人们来说，区分平淡无奇的增长和不明显的衰退是很困难的。
