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Beefed-up burgernomics
日益强大的汉堡经济学
THE Big Mac index celebrates its 25th birthday this year. Invented by The Economist in 1986 asa lighthearted guide to whether currencies are at their correct level, it was never intended asa precise gauge of currency misalignment, merely a tool to make exchange-rate theory moredigestible. Yet the Big Mac index has become a global standard, included in several economictextbooks and the subject of at least 20 academic studies. American politicians have even citedthe index in their demands for a big appreciation of the Chinese yuan. With so many peopletaking the hamburger standard so seriously, it may be time to beef it up.
巨无霸指数已经诞生25年了。在1986年的一期经济学人杂志中第一次出现，当初仅仅是为了让人们更易理解汇率，随意的作为一个衡量货币是否在正常水平的指标，人们从没有指望它能作为一个估评货币的标准。然而如今巨无霸指标已经成为国际的一个标准，被数个经济读本引用还成为至少20个学术研究的课题。美国的政客们甚至借这一数字来要求中国人民币的增值。鉴于人们如此看重汉堡指数，可能是时候去讨论一下它的意义了。
Burgernomics is based on the theory of purchasing-power parity , the notion that in thelong run exchange rates should move towards the rate that would equalise the prices of anidentical basket of goods and services in any two countries. Theaverage price of a Big Mac in America is $4.07; in China it is only $2.27 at market exchangerates, 44% cheaper. In other words, the raw Big Mac index suggests that the yuan isundervalued by 44% against the dollar. In contrast, the currencies of Switzerland and Norwayappear to be overvalued by around 100%. The euro is overvalued by 21% against the dollar; sterling is slightly undervalued;the Japanese yen seems to be spot-on. For the first time, we have included India in our survey.McDonalds does not sell Big Macs there, so we have taken the price of a Maharaja Mac, madewith chicken instead of beef. Meat accounts for less than 10% of a burgers total cost, so this isunlikely to distort results hugely. It indicates that the rupee is 53% undervalued.
以购买力等价理论为基础，汉堡经济旨在表示任意两个国家，长期以来保持的汇率应该趋于使人们消费在同样的商品或服务的金钱持平。在美国巨无霸的价格平均为每个$4.07，而在中国经市场汇率计算仅为$2.27，便宜了 44%。换句话说，原始的巨无霸指数显示人民币较美元被低估了44%。另一方面瑞士和挪威的货币则约被高估了100%。欧元较美元高估了21%;英镑低估了一点点，日元则和美元持平。这是我们第一次将印度囊括在调查的国家中，因为麦当劳并不在印度销售巨无霸，于是我们选取印度版巨无霸来研究，汉堡里面夹的是鸡肉而不是牛肉。但肉的价格占整个汉堡价格的比例小于10%，所以这也不会使结果产生太大偏差。结果显示，卢比的汇率被低估了53%。
Ketchup growth
番茄酱增值
Some find burgernomics hard to swallow. Burgerscannot easily be traded across borders, and pricesare distorted by big differences in the cost of non-traded local inputs such as rent and workers wages.The Big Mac index suggests that most emerging-market currencies are significantly undervalued, forinstance . But you would expect average prices tobe cheaper in poor countries than in rich onesbecause labour costs are lower. This is the basis of the so-called Balassa-Samuelson effect.Rich countries have much higher productivity and hence higher wages in the traded-goodssector than poor countries do. Because firms compete for workers, this also pushes up wagesin non-tradable goods and services, where rich countries productivity advantage is smaller.So average prices are cheaper in poor countries. The top chart shows a strong positiverelationship between the dollar price of a Big Mac and GDP per person
一些人觉得很难接受汉堡经济。因为汉堡不易跨国交易，而且价格随着当地非交易商品的成本，例如租金、员工薪资的不同也有偏差。打个比方，巨无霸指数表明，大多数新兴市场国家的货币的汇率很大程度上被低估，。但你可能认为贫穷国家的平均价格比富有国家的低，是因为劳动力更廉价，其实这是巴拉萨萨缪尔森效应带来的偏见。富国的生产率比贫国的生产率高出很多，所以在商品交易环节的薪值更高。 又因为公司之间会竞争雇佣员工，这也使得非交易商品和服务上花费的金钱水涨船高。 所以 贫国的平均价格要低一些。上图显示了一个巨无霸的美元价值和个人的GDP之间有很强的正比关系。
Chinas average income is only one-tenth of that in America so economic theory would suggestthat its exchange rate should be below its long-run PPP . PPP signals where exchange rates should be headingin the long run, as China gets richer, but it says little about todays equilibrium rate. However,the relationship between prices and GDP per person can perhaps be used to estimate thecurrent fair value of a currency. The top chart shows the line of best fit between Big Macprices and GDP per person for 48 countries. The difference between the price predicted by thered line for each country, given its income per head, and its actual price offers a better guide tocurrency under- and overvaluation than the PPP-based raw index.
中国的平均收入只有美国人的1/10， 所以根据经济理论，汇率应该比PPP长期保持的值低PPP显示的是长期交易活动中，在中国变富的情形下，汇率的值应该何去何从。但是它并没提及均衡利率。不论如何，价格和个人GDP之间的关系也许能用来评估货币的现期公平价值。上图显示，48个国家巨无霸价格和人均GDP间的最佳状态， 表示每个国家价格差距的红线，再加上个人收入额以及实际价格， 就会比纯粹基于PPP数据得出结论，更好的指示出货币是低估了还是高估了。
Thisalternativerecipe, withitsadjustmentfor GDP perperson,indicatesthat theBrazilian realis still badlyovercooked, at more than 100% too dear . The euro is 36% overvalued against the dollar,and our beefed-up index also throws useful light onthe uncompetitiveness of some economies within theeuro area. Comparing burger prices in membercountries, the adjusted Big Mac index shows that theexchange rates of Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugalare all significantly overvalued relative to that ofGermany. As for China, the yuan is close to its fairvalue against the greenback on the adjustedmeasure, although both are undervalued againstmany other currencies.
通过这个可供选择的方法，包含了调整后的个人GDP的数据，可以看出巴西货币雷亚尔实在是被炒得过火了。比原料价值高出了100%。欧元较美元被高估了36%，由此可见我们的巨无霸指数也揭示出一些欧元区国家缺乏竞争力的现状。比较成员国国家的汉堡价格，调整之后的巨无霸指数显示与德国相比，意大利，西班牙，希腊和葡萄牙的汇率都被高估了。至于中国，在调整后的尺度下看，人民币已经接近与美元的公平价值，尽管两国的汇率和其他许多国家的货币汇率相比还是被低估的。
Super-size jubilee
巨型周年纪念
In trade-weighted terms our calculations suggest that the yuan is a modest 7% undervalued,hardly grounds for a trade war. That is less than previous estimates of a 20-25%undervaluation, based on models that calculate the appreciation in the yuan needed to reduceChinas current-account surplus to a manageable level of, say, 3% of GDP. Even thissurplus-based method now points to a smaller yuan undervaluation than it used to becauseChinas surplus has shrunk. Several private-sector economists forecast that it could dropbelow 4% of GDP this year, down from nearly 11% in 2007. As its productivity rises over timeChina must continue to allow its real exchange rate to rise , but our new burger barometer suggests that the yuan isnot hugely undervalued today.
从贸易加权的角度来看，分析表明人民币只被低估了7%，根本不能成为贸易战的原因。根据模型分析得出，人民币的增值应该将中国的活期储蓄盈余减少至一个可以控制的水平，比如说30%。而就是这个以盈余为评判标准的方法，现在也指出，由于中国的盈余缩减了，人民币的低估值也小了。一些私营企业的经济学家预测，中国今年的GDP的增长幅度将从2007年11%下降至不到4%。因为生产率连年上升，中国必须持续提高自己的实际汇率，，无论怎样，我们新一轮的汉堡测量表都显示，人民币元没有被太多的低估。
A quarter of a century after its first grilling, burgernomics is still far from perfect, but ifadjusted for GDP per person it becomes tastier. All the more reason to keep putting ourmoney where our mouth is.
汉堡经济自第一次问世已经过去25年，它仍有很多不足，不过与个人的GDP值调整后就合理多了。这也让我们有更多的理由去干些实事了。
Beefed-up burgernomics
日益强大的汉堡经济学
THE Big Mac index celebrates its 25th birthday this year. Invented by The Economist in 1986 asa lighthearted guide to whether currencies are at their correct level, it was never intended asa precise gauge of currency misalignment, merely a tool to make exchange-rate theory moredigestible. Yet the Big Mac index has become a global standard, included in several economictextbooks and the subject of at least 20 academic studies. American politicians have even citedthe index in their demands for a big appreciation of the Chinese yuan. With so many peopletaking the hamburger standard so seriously, it may be time to beef it up.
巨无霸指数已经诞生25年了。在1986年的一期经济学人杂志中第一次出现，当初仅仅是为了让人们更易理解汇率，随意的作为一个衡量货币是否在正常水平的指标，人们从没有指望它能作为一个估评货币的标准。然而如今巨无霸指标已经成为国际的一个标准，被数个经济读本引用还成为至少20个学术研究的课题。美国的政客们甚至借这一数字来要求中国人民币的增值。鉴于人们如此看重汉堡指数，可能是时候去讨论一下它的意义了。
Burgernomics is based on the theory of purchasing-power parity , the notion that in thelong run exchange rates should move towards the rate that would equalise the prices of anidentical basket of goods and services in any two countries. Theaverage price of a Big Mac in America is $4.07; in China it is only $2.27 at market exchangerates, 44% cheaper. In other words, the raw Big Mac index suggests that the yuan isundervalued by 44% against the dollar. In contrast, the currencies of Switzerland and Norwayappear to be overvalued by around 100%. The euro is overvalued by 21% against the dollar; sterling is slightly undervalued;the Japanese yen seems to be spot-on. For the first time, we have included India in our survey.McDonalds does not sell Big Macs there, so we have taken the price of a Maharaja Mac, madewith chicken instead of beef. Meat accounts for less than 10% of a burgers total cost, so this isunlikely to distort results hugely. It indicates that the rupee is 53% undervalued.
以购买力等价理论为基础，汉堡经济旨在表示任意两个国家，长期以来保持的汇率应该趋于使人们消费在同样的商品或服务的金钱持平。在美国巨无霸的价格平均为每个$4.07，而在中国经市场汇率计算仅为$2.27，便宜了 44%。换句话说，原始的巨无霸指数显示人民币较美元被低估了44%。另一方面瑞士和挪威的货币则约被高估了100%。欧元较美元高估了21%;英镑低估了一点点，日元则和美元持平。这是我们第一次将印度囊括在调查的国家中，因为麦当劳并不在印度销售巨无霸，于是我们选取印度版巨无霸来研究，汉堡里面夹的是鸡肉而不是牛肉。但肉的价格占整个汉堡价格的比例小于10%，所以这也不会使结果产生太大偏差。结果显示，卢比的汇率被低估了53%。
Ketchup growth
番茄酱增值
Some find burgernomics hard to swallow. Burgerscannot easily be traded across borders, and pricesare distorted by big differences in the cost of non-traded local inputs such as rent and workers wages.The Big Mac index suggests that most emerging-market currencies are significantly undervalued, forinstance . But you would expect average prices tobe cheaper in poor countries than in rich onesbecause labour costs are lower. This is the basis of the so-called Balassa-Samuelson effect.Rich countries have much higher productivity and hence higher wages in the traded-goodssector than poor countries do. Because firms compete for workers, this also pushes up wagesin non-tradable goods and services, where rich countries productivity advantage is smaller.So average prices are cheaper in poor countries. The top chart shows a strong positiverelationship between the dollar price of a Big Mac and GDP per person
一些人觉得很难接受汉堡经济。因为汉堡不易跨国交易，而且价格随着当地非交易商品的成本，例如租金、员工薪资的不同也有偏差。打个比方，巨无霸指数表明，大多数新兴市场国家的货币的汇率很大程度上被低估，。但你可能认为贫穷国家的平均价格比富有国家的低，是因为劳动力更廉价，其实这是巴拉萨萨缪尔森效应带来的偏见。富国的生产率比贫国的生产率高出很多，所以在商品交易环节的薪值更高。 又因为公司之间会竞争雇佣员工，这也使得非交易商品和服务上花费的金钱水涨船高。 所以 贫国的平均价格要低一些。上图显示了一个巨无霸的美元价值和个人的GDP之间有很强的正比关系。
Chinas average income is only one-tenth of that in America so economic theory would suggestthat its exchange rate should be below its long-run PPP . PPP signals where exchange rates should be headingin the long run, as China gets richer, but it says little about todays equilibrium rate. However,the relationship between prices and GDP per person can perhaps be used to estimate thecurrent fair value of a currency. The top chart shows the line of best fit between Big Macprices and GDP per person for 48 countries. The difference between the price predicted by thered line for each country, given its income per head, and its actual price offers a better guide tocurrency under- and overvaluation than the PPP-based raw index.
中国的平均收入只有美国人的1/10， 所以根据经济理论，汇率应该比PPP长期保持的值低PPP显示的是长期交易活动中，在中国变富的情形下，汇率的值应该何去何从。但是它并没提及均衡利率。不论如何，价格和个人GDP之间的关系也许能用来评估货币的现期公平价值。上图显示，48个国家巨无霸价格和人均GDP间的最佳状态， 表示每个国家价格差距的红线，再加上个人收入额以及实际价格， 就会比纯粹基于PPP数据得出结论，更好的指示出货币是低估了还是高估了。
Thisalternativerecipe, withitsadjustmentfor GDP perperson,indicatesthat theBrazilian realis still badlyovercooked, at more than 100% too dear . The euro is 36% overvalued against the dollar,and our beefed-up index also throws useful light onthe uncompetitiveness of some economies within theeuro area. Comparing burger prices in membercountries, the adjusted Big Mac index shows that theexchange rates of Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugalare all significantly overvalued relative to that ofGermany. As for China, the yuan is close to its fairvalue against the greenback on the adjustedmeasure, although both are undervalued againstmany other currencies.
通过这个可供选择的方法，包含了调整后的个人GDP的数据，可以看出巴西货币雷亚尔实在是被炒得过火了。比原料价值高出了100%。欧元较美元被高估了36%，由此可见我们的巨无霸指数也揭示出一些欧元区国家缺乏竞争力的现状。比较成员国国家的汉堡价格，调整之后的巨无霸指数显示与德国相比，意大利，西班牙，希腊和葡萄牙的汇率都被高估了。至于中国，在调整后的尺度下看，人民币已经接近与美元的公平价值，尽管两国的汇率和其他许多国家的货币汇率相比还是被低估的。
Super-size jubilee
巨型周年纪念
In trade-weighted terms our calculations suggest that the yuan is a modest 7% undervalued,hardly grounds for a trade war. That is less than previous estimates of a 20-25%undervaluation, based on models that calculate the appreciation in the yuan needed to reduceChinas current-account surplus to a manageable level of, say, 3% of GDP. Even thissurplus-based method now points to a smaller yuan undervaluation than it used to becauseChinas surplus has shrunk. Several private-sector economists forecast that it could dropbelow 4% of GDP this year, down from nearly 11% in 2007. As its productivity rises over timeChina must continue to allow its real exchange rate to rise , but our new burger barometer suggests that the yuan isnot hugely undervalued today.
从贸易加权的角度来看，分析表明人民币只被低估了7%，根本不能成为贸易战的原因。根据模型分析得出，人民币的增值应该将中国的活期储蓄盈余减少至一个可以控制的水平，比如说30%。而就是这个以盈余为评判标准的方法，现在也指出，由于中国的盈余缩减了，人民币的低估值也小了。一些私营企业的经济学家预测，中国今年的GDP的增长幅度将从2007年11%下降至不到4%。因为生产率连年上升，中国必须持续提高自己的实际汇率，，无论怎样，我们新一轮的汉堡测量表都显示，人民币元没有被太多的低估。
A quarter of a century after its first grilling, burgernomics is still far from perfect, but ifadjusted for GDP per person it becomes tastier. All the more reason to keep putting ourmoney where our mouth is.
汉堡经济自第一次问世已经过去25年，它仍有很多不足，不过与个人的GDP值调整后就合理多了。这也让我们有更多的理由去干些实事了。
